Nigeria's 36 States and the FCT: A Voter's Guide to State-Level Politics

Nigeria is not a single political market. It is a federation of 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, each with its own political culture, economic base, ethnic composition, and electoral behavior. To understand Nigerian elections, you must understand the states.

This is a voter's guide to the political landscape of Nigeria, organized by the six geopolitical zones.

The Six Geopolitical Zones

Nigeria is informally divided into six geopolitical zones, a classification that dates to the Sani Abacha era and has become a standard framework for political analysis:

1. North-West — 7 states 2. North-East — 6 states 3. North-Central — 7 states (including the FCT) 4. South-West — 6 states 5. South-South — 6 states 6. South-East — 5 states

Each zone has distinct political dynamics that shape how its citizens vote.

North-West: The Population Powerhouse

The North-West is the most populous zone in Nigeria, comprising Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Kaduna, and Kano. It is predominantly Hausa-Fulani and Muslim, and it has historically been the decisive zone in presidential elections.

Kano is the political bellwether of the North. With the largest voter registration in the zone, Kano has a history of volatile politics — it has elected governors from the ANPP, PDP, APC, and NNPP in the Fourth Republic. The emergence of the NNPP under Rabiu Kwankwaso has made Kano a three-party state.

Kaduna is the political bridge between the North and the Middle Belt. It has a significant Christian minority and has been the site of ethno-religious tension. Kaduna politics are heavily influenced by the legacy of Nasir el-Rufai's two terms as governor.

Katsina, the home state of former President Muhammadu Buhari, is APC heartland but has shown increasing competitiveness in recent cycles.

North-East: The Security-Challenged Zone

The North-East comprises Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe, and Bauchi. It has been the most affected by the Boko Haram insurgency, which has displaced millions and depressed voter turnout.

Borno is the epicenter of the insurgency. Despite the security challenges, Borno has maintained relatively high turnout, and the APC has dominated the state since 2015.

Adamawa is politically competitive, with the PDP and APC regularly contesting close elections. The emergence of Senator Aishatu Binani as a major APC gubernatorial candidate in 2023 highlighted the state's evolving politics.

Bauchi is PDP-led under Governor Bala Mohammed, who has been a vocal opposition figure.

North-Central: The Middle Belt

The North-Central comprises Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Plateau, Benue, and the FCT. It is the most ethnically and religiously diverse zone, with significant Christian and Muslim populations and a large number of minority ethnic groups.

Plateau has been a PDP stronghold but has shifted toward the APC in recent cycles. The state has experienced ethno-religious violence that has shaped its political behavior.

Benue is dominated by the Tiv and Idoma peoples and has been a PDP state, though the APC has made inroads. The farmer-herder conflict is a central political issue.

Kogi is politically volatile, with the APC and PDP regularly contesting close elections. The state has been the site of controversial elections, including the 2019 Kogi governorship election.

Kwara shifted from PDP to APC in 2019 in the "O to ge" (enough is enough) movement, which was driven by dissatisfaction with the Saraki political dynasty.

The FCT (Abuja) is a cosmopolitan territory with a diverse electorate. It tends to vote based on national rather than local dynamics.

South-West: The Yoruba Heartland

The South-West comprises Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti. It is predominantly Yoruba and has a mix of Muslim and Christian populations. It is the most economically developed zone and has been the base of the APC (and its predecessor, the ACN).

Lagos is the commercial capital and the state with the largest voter registration. It has been APC territory since 1999, but the 2023 elections showed significant inroads by the Labour Party, particularly in Lagos Island and urban areas. Lagos politics are dominated by the Tinubu political machine.

Oyo is politically competitive, with the PDP and APC regularly contesting close elections. Governor Seyi Makinde is a prominent PDP figure.

Ondo is APC-led and has been the site of off-cycle governorship elections that often serve as bellwethers.

Osun is politically volatile, with the PDP and APC regularly exchanging the governorship. The 2022 Osun election was notable for INEC's invocation of its power to review a declaration made under duress.

Ogun and Ekiti are smaller states that have been generally APC-leaning but competitive.

South-South: The Oil-Producing Zone

The South-South comprises Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Akwa Ibom, and Cross River. It is the oil-producing heartland and is ethnically diverse, with the Ijaw, Itsekiri, Urhobo, Isoko, Efik, Ibibio, and other groups.

Rivers is the most politically volatile state in the zone. The conflict between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike has created a political crisis that defies simple party categorization.

Delta is PDP-led and has been a relatively stable state politically.

Edo shifted from APC to PDP in the 2020 governorship election, in a contest that became a national referendum on godfatherism.

Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Cross River are PDP-leaning states with their own internal dynamics.

The South-South has historically voted PDP at the presidential level, though the APC has made inroads in recent cycles.

South-East: The Igbo Heartland

The South-East comprises Anambra, Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, and Abia. It is predominantly Igbo and has historically voted PDP, though the 2023 elections saw a dramatic shift toward the Labour Party.

Anambra is the home state of Peter Obi and has been politically idiosyncratic, electing governors from APGA, PDP, and APC. The current governor, Chukwuma Soludo, is APGA.

Imo is APC-led under Governor Hope Uzodinma, who came to office through a controversial Supreme Court judgment.

Enugu, Ebonyi, and Abia have been PDP-leaning, though the Labour Party surge of 2023 transformed the zone's presidential voting pattern.

The South-East has the lowest voter turnout of any zone, a reflection of both disillusionment and the logistical challenges of voting in the region.

Why State-Level Politics Matters

Understanding state-level politics matters for several reasons:

1. The Governorship Is the Real Prize

In Nigerian politics, the governorship is often more consequential to citizens' daily lives than the presidency. Governors control state allocations, local government funds, and security arrangements. A state's political alignment shapes everything from education to infrastructure to security.

2. State Results Determine the Presidency

The presidential election is the sum of state results. A candidate who understands the political dynamics of each state can build a coalition that is competitive nationally. A candidate who treats the country as a single market will lose.

3. Off-Cycle Elections Matter

Nigeria has a growing number of off-cycle governorship elections — Ekiti, Osun, Anambra, Bayelsa, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, and Edo have all held off-cycle elections. These elections are bellwethers for national politics and often attract disproportionate national attention and spending.

4. Local Government Is Where Democracy Lives

The credibility of local government elections — currently held by state electoral commissions rather than INEC — varies dramatically across states. States with credible local elections build a culture of participation that carries into national elections.

The 2027 Outlook

The 2027 general elections will be contested across all 36 states and the FCT, with the presidential race determined by the sum of state-level results. Understanding the political dynamics of each state — its ethnic composition, its economic base, its security situation, and its recent electoral behavior — is essential to understanding what is at stake.

At Watch Nigeria Elections, we track every state, every LGA, and every polling unit. Our field agents are deployed across all 36 states and the FCT, and our platform aggregates their reports into a real-time picture of the Nigerian electoral landscape.

Because democracy is not a national event. It is 36 state events, 774 local government events, and 176,000 polling unit events — all happening at once. Understanding it starts with understanding the states.