How ADC Won the Hearts of Nigeria's South-South — And What It Means for 2027

Bayelsa. Rivers. Delta. Edo. Cross River. Akwa Ibom. These six states constitute Nigeria's South-South geopolitical zone — historically the most reliable PDP stronghold in the country, a region that delivered massive vote margins for every PDP presidential candidate from Obasanjo through Jonathan and Atiku.

That reliability is cracking. And the African Democratic Congress is the beneficiary.

The PDP's South-South Problem

The cracks in the PDP's South-South dominance predate the ADC's current strategy. They began in 2022-2023 when the party's presidential primary — widely seen in the region as manipulated to favour Northern interests — caused a fracture in the South-South PDP establishment that has never fully healed.

Atiku Abubakar's selection as the PDP presidential candidate in 2022 was deeply unpopular in the South-South, a zone that had been promised a "Southern turn" after sixteen years of PDP's Northern-dominated presidency under Obasanjo (from Ogun, technically South-West) followed by two Northerners, Yar'Adua and Buhari. Many South-South PDP leaders felt betrayed, and this betrayal created the political space that ADC has moved to fill.

ADC's South-South Strategy

The ADC's South-South expansion is not accidental. Beginning in 2024, the party made a deliberate strategic decision to invest in the region, appointing a South-South native as Deputy National Chairman, establishing dedicated state structures in all six South-South states, and most importantly, engaging the network of political operators — local government chairmen, youth leaders, traditional ruler advisors, and women's political organizations — who form the backbone of actual voter mobilization.

The party has also been careful to align with the region's primary grievance: the sense that the South-South produces Nigeria's wealth but does not receive commensurate political power or developmental investment. ADC's official policy platform — which explicitly calls for a new derivation formula for oil-producing states and an empowered NDDC with independent funding — has resonated.

The Numbers

In a series of bye-elections held across South-South states between 2024 and early 2026, ADC's performance has been remarkable for a party that barely registered in the region during previous elections. In two Rivers State state assembly bye-elections, ADC candidates finished second ahead of PDP in areas where the party had previously been a non-factor. In Delta State, ADC's gubernatorial candidate in the 2024 governorship election secured nearly 12% of the vote — a historic performance for the party in that state.

These numbers do not make ADC a dominant force in the South-South — PDP and APC still command far larger organizations and resources. But they establish a credible beachhead that becomes strategically significant if a high-profile South-South candidate — such as Goodluck Jonathan — were to run on the ADC platform.

The arithmetic is straightforward: a Jonathan-ADC ticket drawing on South-South loyalty, supplemented by South-East support and urban youth votes drawn from former Labour Party constituencies, creates a genuine three-cornered presidential race. In a three-cornered race, 35% of the vote wins.

That is a scenario that the APC and PDP are monitoring with growing alarm.